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{"id":20836,"date":"2023-01-02T12:04:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T05:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thaipuls.com\/?p=20836"},"modified":"2023-01-02T12:04:00","modified_gmt":"2023-01-02T05:04:00","slug":"svenska-kronan-nastan-samst-i-varlden-nar-vander-det","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thaipuls.com\/svenska-kronan-nastan-samst-i-varlden-nar-vander-det\/","title":{"rendered":"Svenska kronan n\u00e4stan s\u00e4mst i v\u00e4rlden, n\u00e4r v\u00e4nder det?"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e5r svenska krona m\u00e5r inte bra. F\u00e5 valutor har rasat mer i \u00e5r. Men kronans problem \u00e4r mer kronisk \u00e4n akut. Det senaste decenniet har varit en l\u00e5ng utf\u00f6rsbacke f\u00f6r v\u00e4xelkursen. \u201dSverige har s\u00e5 pass starka fundamenta att kronan f\u00f6rtj\u00e4nar ett b\u00e4ttre \u00f6de\u201d, s\u00e4ger Carl Hammer.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6rsveteranen\u00a0Peter Malmqvist<\/strong>\u00a0b\u00f6rjar ocks\u00e5 tala i metaforer n\u00e4r han f\u00e5r fr\u00e5gan om hur han ser p\u00e5 Riksbankens senaste r\u00e4ntesm\u00e4ll.<\/p>\n

\u201dF\u00f6r att bromsa allt som nu rusar fram tvingas de sl\u00e4nga in b\u00e5de ankare, dra i handbromsen och v\u00e4nda seglen mot vinden. Det destabiliserar och vi kommer tvingas betala f\u00f6r det under det kommande \u00e5ret\u201d<\/em>, s\u00e4ger Malmqvist, som \u00e4r oberoende analytiker och l\u00e4rare i redovisning, finansanalys och f\u00f6retagsv\u00e4rdering vid Stockholms universitet.<\/p>\n

Betalar g\u00f6r inte minst den som planerar en utlandsresa. Efter att\u00a0Stefan Ingves<\/strong> med kollegorna i direktionen slog till med 100 r\u00e4ntepunkter v\u00e4xlades en dollar in till rekordh\u00f6ga 11 kronor och 50 \u00f6re f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader sedan och nu p\u00e5 10.43. 25% mer \u00e4n vid \u00e5rsskiftet 21\/22.<\/p>\n

Under den senaste veckan har dollarn sjunkit tillbaka fr\u00e5n sin rekordniv\u00e5. Men kurvan, sett fr\u00e5n b\u00f6rjan av \u00e5ret, \u00e4r fortfarande brant utf\u00f6r.<\/p>\n

Svenska kronan \u00e4r dock inget offer f\u00f6r en tillf\u00e4llig svacka, n\u00e4r centralbankerna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker bota inflationssjukan. Det har varit l\u00e5ngvarig utf\u00f6rsbacke, \u00e4ven om ett av Riksbankens tv\u00e5 m\u00e5l just \u00e4r att \u201duppr\u00e4tth\u00e5lla ett fast penningv\u00e4rde\u201d.<\/p>\n

Det har Riksbanken tolkat som att inflationen ska h\u00e5llas p\u00e5 2%.<\/p>\n

\n

Bara under 2022 \u00e4r raset f\u00f6r kronan st\u00f6rre \u00e4n f\u00f6r de flesta andra valutor. Och om man bortser extremer \u00e4ven i kategorin skr\u00e4pvalutor \u2013 som venezuelansk bol\u00edvar \u2013 har endast ett f\u00e5tal valutor f\u00f6rsvagats mer mot dollarn, visar Thaipuls genomg\u00e5ng.
\nBland dem: ungersk forint, ukrainsk hryvnia, turkisk lira och argentinsk peso.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

En f\u00f6rklaring \u00e4r utl\u00e4ndska investerare, som drar sig undan n\u00e4r det r\u00e5der os\u00e4kerhet kring valutautvecklingen.<\/p>\n

\u201dDet handlar inte om att de misstror landet, utan ett krasst konstaterande att det h\u00e4r brukar h\u00e4nda med den svenska kronan vid b\u00f6rskrascher. Svenska kronan \u00e4r en d\u00e5lig valuta att ha i orostider har det visat sig, r\u00e4tt och sl\u00e4tt\u201d, s\u00e4ger Peter Malmqvist.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5n Riksbanken har det ocks\u00e5 riktats kritik mot hur den internationella finansmarknaden ser p\u00e5 den svenska valutan.<\/p>\n

\u201dRiksbanken fortsatte med minusr\u00e4nta l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n vad som var befogat enligt de flesta bed\u00f6mare och h\u00f6jde till noll f\u00f6rst i december 2019\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00c4ven ekonomer p\u00e5 Riksbanken har lyft fram den l\u00e5ngvariga minusr\u00e4ntan som ett viktigt sk\u00e4l till den svaga kronkursen under perioden.<\/p>\n

\u201dVi konstaterar att r\u00e4ntan i bland annat USA och Storbritannien sedan 2014 har varit h\u00f6gre \u00e4n den svenska r\u00e4ntan och denna r\u00e4ntedifferens visar en h\u00f6g korrelation med den svenska kronans utveckling gentemot valutor i dessa l\u00e4nder\u201d, skrev tv\u00e5 ekonomer fr\u00e5n Riksbankens penningpolitiska avdelning i en\u00a0rapport fr\u00e5n 2020<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Nej till EUR var ett stort misstag<\/strong>
\nN\u00e4sta h\u00f6st har det g\u00e5tt 20 \u00e5r sedan en majoritet av de svenska v\u00e4ljarna sade nej till att inf\u00f6ra euron som valuta i en folkomr\u00f6stning. Sedan dess har kronan tagit rej\u00e4lt med stryk.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5n folkomr\u00f6stningen den\u00a0<\/strong>14 september 2003 har den svenska valutan tappat 22 procent mot euron och n\u00e4stan 30 procent mot dollarn. Och g\u00e5r man tillbaka till 1970-talet har priset p\u00e5 en dollar mer \u00e4n f\u00f6rdubblats.<\/p>\n

Kursturbulensen har varit stundtals dramatisk, genom finanskrisen, eurokrisen och pandemin \u2013 och nu i \u00e5r i Ukrainakrigets skugga, d\u00e4r vi via energikris och pandemieffeker har hamnat i en historisk inflations- och r\u00e4ntechock med nya historiska bottennapp f\u00f6r kronan under h\u00f6sten.<\/p>\n

\u201dAB Sverige borde ha en h\u00f6gre aktiekurs, det vill s\u00e4ga en starkare krona. Men det har vi inte\u201d, s\u00e4ger Robert Bergqvist, senior ekonom p\u00e5 storbanken SEB.<\/p>\n

Han beskriver kronan<\/strong>\u00a0som underv\u00e4rderad, med ungef\u00e4r 10 procent, om man g\u00f6r en analys av Sveriges ekonomiska f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar, de offentliga finanserna och hur landets aff\u00e4rer med omv\u00e4rlden g\u00e5r.<\/p>\n

Det som tynger \u00e4r den geopolitiska oron med ett krig i n\u00e4romr\u00e5det och en energikris som sl\u00e5r h\u00e5rt mot hela Europa, enligt Bergqvist. Minskad riskaptit i k\u00f6lvattnet p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsfall och ett utdraget prisfall p\u00e5 bost\u00e4der i Sverige \u00e4r andra faktorer han kopplar ihop med kronans problem.<\/p>\n

\u201dDet finns en oro bland utl\u00e4ndska investerare kring den svenska bostadsmarknaden, hela fastighetsmarknaden. H\u00f6g skulds\u00e4ttning bland b\u00e5de hush\u00e5ll och kommersiella fastighetsbolag blir ett problem n\u00e4r vi \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g upp\u00e5t med r\u00e4ntorna. Marknaden vill ha grepp om vad som h\u00e4nder p\u00e5 fastighetsmarknaden i Sverige innan de g\u00e5r in och k\u00f6per kronor\u201d, s\u00e4ger han.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\"Robert<\/div>
Robert Bergqvist, senior ekonom p\u00e5 SEB.<\/span>Foto:<\/span>Jesper Frisk<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Bergqvist spelade en avg\u00f6rande roll som ansvarig f\u00f6r penning- och valutapolitisk analys p\u00e5 Riksbanken 1988\u20131997, d\u00e5 den svenska centralbanken i ett sista f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att f\u00f6rsvara en fast v\u00e4xelkurs h\u00f6jde marginalr\u00e4ntan till 500 procent. Han har sedan dess fortsatt bevaka och analysera kronan p\u00e5 n\u00e4ra h\u00e5ll som ekonom p\u00e5 SEB.<\/p>\n

Hur mycket ansvarar Riksbanken f\u00f6r att det ser ut som det g\u00f6r?
\n<\/strong>\u201dSka du hitta syndabockar ska du ju titta p\u00e5 drivkrafterna bakom inflationen. D\u00e5 ska du i f\u00f6rsta hand s\u00f6ka i finanspolitiken globalt\u201d, s\u00e4ger Bergqvist.<\/p>\n

\u201dUnder pandemi\u00e5ren uppgick de finanspolitiska stimulanserna globalt till 18 procent av BNP. Det \u00e4r extremt. Och det p\u00e5gick l\u00e4nge, \u00e4ven n\u00e4r konjunkturen var p\u00e5 v\u00e4g upp\u201d, till\u00e4gger han.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller Riksbanken kan situationen ha f\u00f6rv\u00e4rrats f\u00f6r kronan av att Stefan Ingves och hans direktion var sena ur startblocken med r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna, enligt Bergqvist.<\/p>\n

Riksbanken dr\u00f6jde till den 28 april i \u00e5r med att h\u00f6ja styrr\u00e4ntan fr\u00e5n noll. D\u00e5 hade svensk inflation enligt m\u00e5ttet KPIF \u2013 d\u00e4r bor\u00e4ntor r\u00e4knats bort \u2013 lyft till \u00f6ver 6 procent och legat tydligt \u00f6ver Riksbankens m\u00e5l p\u00e5 2 procent i nio m\u00e5naders tid.<\/p>\n

KPIF-inflationen har sedan<\/strong> dess fortsatt upp\u00e5t till n\u00e4stan 10 procent och v\u00e4ntas inte v\u00e4nda ned\u00e5t f\u00f6rr\u00e4n en bit in i n\u00e4sta \u00e5r.<\/p>\n

\u201dRiksbanken gjorde en felanalys av inflationen. Det var det m\u00e5nga som gjorde, men detta \u00e4r ju centralbankernas uppgift. Det \u00e4r ju d\u00e4r kompetensen och kunskapen ska finnas\u201d, s\u00e4ger Bergqvist.<\/p>\n

\u201dDe har uppenbarligen inte haft f\u00f6rst\u00e5else f\u00f6r inflationen och dess drivkrafter och dynamik. Det har varit en rej\u00e4l felbed\u00f6mning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bergqvist \u00e4r \u00e4ven kritisk till vad han beskriver som \u201dslentrianm\u00e4ssiga\u201d st\u00f6dk\u00f6p av v\u00e4rdepapper.<\/p>\n

\u201dDet borde man ha stoppat tidigare.\u201d<\/p>\n

Enligt Bergqvist \u00e4r f\u00f6rdelarna med en f\u00f6rsvagning av kronan i nul\u00e4get begr\u00e4nsade.<\/p>\n

\u201dAtt kronan f\u00f6rsvagas\u00a0<\/strong>ytterligare nu ger inte s\u00e5 mycket hj\u00e4lp till svensk exportindustri. D\u00e4remot f\u00f6rv\u00e4rrar det inflationsproblemet. Ovanp\u00e5 h\u00f6ga energipriser och h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor blir importerade varor dyrare i kronor.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201dDen h\u00e4r svaga kronan \u00e4r inte bra f\u00f6r svensk ekonomi.\u201d<\/p>\n

Han ser dessutom allvarliga l\u00e5ngsiktiga problem med en svag krona, d\u00e5 det kan fungera som dopning av svensk exportindustri.<\/p>\n

\u201dEn underv\u00e4rderad krona s\u00e4tter svensk exportindustri i n\u00e5gon typ av skyddsbubbla. D\u00e5 k\u00e4nner de inte trycket och behovet av strukturf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar, som finns d\u00e4r ute. D\u00e5 uppst\u00e5r risken att vi tappar i konkurrenskraft, framf\u00f6r allt n\u00e4r kronan s\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom kommer tillbaka till normala niv\u00e5er.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201dDet kan bli ett bryskt uppvaknande.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Bankerna v\u00e4ntar sig l\u00e5ngsam \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning f\u00f6r kronan
\n<\/strong>De svenska storbankerna tror p\u00e5 en l\u00e5ngsam \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning f\u00f6r den svenska kronan. Men flera faktorer g\u00f6r det sv\u00e5rt att prognostisera om det faktiskt blir en positiv utveckling. \u00c5ter\u00f6ppningen av Kina, inflationen och b\u00f6rsutvecklingen v\u00e4ntas styra riktningen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e5 fr\u00e5gan n\u00e4r det v\u00e4nder f\u00f6r kronan svarar analytikern Peter Malmqvist:
\n\u201dDen kommer st\u00e4rkas igen f\u00f6rst n\u00e4r b\u00f6rsturbulensen har ebbat ut.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kronan har backat kraftigt under \u00e5ret och i dagsl\u00e4get kostar en euro omkring 11,1 kronor och en dollar 10,5 kronor. Under n\u00e4sta \u00e5r v\u00e4ntas den svenska valutan \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig n\u00e5got. Vid utg\u00e5ngen av 2023 v\u00e4ntas en euro kosta 10,6 kronor och en dollar 10 kronor, enligt storbankernas snittprognoser som Bloomberg sammanst\u00e4llt.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 det ser ut som 2023 kommer vi ha en svag krona n\u00e5got starkare men tyv\u00e4rr ser det inte ut som vi f\u00e5r n\u00e5gon st\u00f6rre h\u00f6jning runt 3.50 skulle vi tro.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00e5r svenska krona m\u00e5r inte bra. F\u00e5 valutor har rasat mer i \u00e5r. Men kronans problem \u00e4r mer kronisk \u00e4n akut. Det senaste decenniet har varit en l\u00e5ng utf\u00f6rsbacke f\u00f6r v\u00e4xelkursen. \u201dSverige har s\u00e5 pass starka fundamenta att kronan f\u00f6rtj\u00e4nar ett b\u00e4ttre \u00f6de\u201d, s\u00e4ger Carl Hammer. B\u00f6rsveteranen\u00a0Peter Malmqvist\u00a0b\u00f6rjar ocks\u00e5 tala i metaforer n\u00e4r han f\u00e5r […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20839,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,59],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-20836","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomi","8":"category-sverige"},"yoast_head":"\nSvenska kronan n\u00e4stan s\u00e4mst i v\u00e4rlden, n\u00e4r v\u00e4nder det? - Thai Puls<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thaipuls.com\/svenska-kronan-nastan-samst-i-varlden-nar-vander-det\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Svenska kronan n\u00e4stan s\u00e4mst i v\u00e4rlden, n\u00e4r v\u00e4nder det? 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